2014 Lobster Forecast--Update 2

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The warming at Buoy E has continued and the temperatures there are now pretty much at the long-term average.  This means that our forecast is for a season that is only delayed two days (now projected for July 1):

Forecast2014_04.12.jpg
As before, the start dates from previous years are plotted at the top, with blue indicating cold years and red indicating warm years.  The diamonds represent a forecast.  The center of the diamond is the forecasted value and the width is the 95% confidence interval.  Each diamond represents a forecast made using data centered on the date on the left.  

Note that the width of the diamond is smaller than before.  This is due to both higher skill for this week compared to previous and to the fact that our forecast is close to the longer-term average.

I don't have a good sense for weather the warming will continue or whether we will remain close to the long term average.  NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting below average air temperatures over the next few weeks, so perhaps we'll hold steady with a slightly delayed season.

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This page contains a single entry by Andy Pershing published on April 15, 2014 2:57 PM.

2014 Lobster Forecast--Update 1 was the previous entry in this blog.

2014 Lobster Forecast--Update 3 is the next entry in this blog.

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