2014 Lobster Forecast--Update 3

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School vacation starts tomorrow in Maine, and I'll be taking some much needed vacation time.  I will try to update the forecast at least once while I'm gone, but I wanted to make sure to get a fresh forecast up before I leave:

Forecast2014_04.17.jpg
The forecast again has shifted to the left, and we're now essentially predicting a normal season.  The best analog is 2008.  

I'm intrigued by how the season is progressing in the water.  My sense is that the ocean is warming up faster than on shore, especially below the surface.  I think this might be a result of the series of clear, bright days we've had recently.  The most important component to heating in the ocean is the penetration of light into the water.  On a clear day, especially if the winds are low, there are a lot of photons going into the ocean.  The temperature of the air above the water is a lesser factor, and can really just pull heat from the surface of the ocean.  The forecast for the next few days is for sunny and calm conditions.  My bet is that by the middle of next week, our forecast will be for an slightly early start.

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This page contains a single entry by Andy Pershing published on April 17, 2014 8:12 AM.

2014 Lobster Forecast--Update 2 was the previous entry in this blog.

2014 Lobster Forecast--Update 4 is the next entry in this blog.

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