2014 Lobster Forecast--Update 5

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The temperatures at 20m were slightly below average for a few days.  This has caused our forecasted start of the high-catch period to shift slightly later, but we are still projecting a more-or-less normal year:

Forecast2014_04.27.jpg

Note that we have changed the labeling on the left-hand axis slightly.  The forecasts are based on the mean temperature over an eight day period.  Originally, we were using the middle of this period as the "date when the forecast was made."  This is obviously not true.  The labels now indicate the last day of data used to make the forecast, as implied by the axis label.  

Although the average temperatures over the last 8 days have been slightly cool, the last two days have been a bit warmer.  When we update the forecast again (likely on Thursday), I would expect the projected start date to shift to the left by a day or so.  

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This page contains a single entry by Andy Pershing published on April 27, 2014 7:23 AM.

2014 Lobster Forecast--Update 4 was the previous entry in this blog.

2014 Lobster Forecast--Update 6 is the next entry in this blog.

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