2014 Lobster Forecast--Update 6

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I think this will be my last update for awhile.  While the skill of our forecast continues to increase through May, the value of the forecast decreases as well.  I might check back on things at the end of the month, but we'll see.

Our final forecast has the start of the season exactly at the long-term average of 6/29:

Forecast2014_05.02.jpg

There is a slightly greater chance that the start date will be earlier than 6/29, but it's pretty small. 

While I'm pretty excited about this forecast, there is one thing that I find unsatisfying.  Because we're defining the start date as the percent of the total landings for the year, we can't check the accuracy of the forecast until the year is complete.  I have some ideas for how we might work around this problem (defining the start as the rate of change in landings, for example).  Here are some other features we hope to add (assuming we can find some funding, of course):

    • move beyond landings to forecasts for hard/soft shell mix
    • forecasts for different lobster zones
    • improved lead time--we think we might be able to start issuing forecasts in November
Stay tuned!

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This page contains a single entry by Andy Pershing published on May 2, 2014 6:40 PM.

2014 Lobster Forecast--Update 5 was the previous entry in this blog.

Making observations at sea is the next entry in this blog.

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