May 2014 Archives

I'd like to thank the academy...

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I'm in Portland, Jr. this week at the Joint Aquatic Sciences Meeting.  I'm here to accept the Yentsch-Schindler Early Career Award from ASLO, the Association for the Sciences of Limnologists and Oceanographers.  It's an amazing to receive this award, especially because my nomination was led by the intrepid and always well-coifed Fred Maps and my advisor Chuck Greene.  Unfortunately the salinity of this meeting is so low that none of my close colleagues (including Fred & Chuck) are here.  In lieu of that, I hope you'll indulge me (and I hope you'll check out Hillary's post, which I just bumped, on her recent cruise) in a quick round of acknowledgements:


First, I wouldn't be where I am without the support of my wonderful family. I can't believe that you put up with my increasingly whacky travel schedule and my even whackier notions that rants about climate change or reviews of the latest Matlab release are appropriate dinner conversation.  You are an endless source of inspiration and support, and I love you all very much.

Second, thank you to the institutions that have supported me throughout my career.  Cornell, UMaine, and GMRI has each influenced me in their own unique and sometimes nonlinear ways.  Although I didn't include their logos, I'm extremely grateful to NSF, NOAA, NASA, and the Lenfest Ocean Program for funding my work.  Please don't stop!

Finally, I have been very lucky to have always found colleagues who inspire and challenge me.  Chuck and Bruce at Cornell helped me figure out that I could really do this.  Then, Dan, Pete, Nick, and Fred (aka the Ecosystem Modeling Lab and Fraternity) helped establish the tone for the lab: geeky and creative, with a touch of irreverence.   Walt, Sigrid, Kathy, and Carrie, and more recently Dom, Katie, and Elise brought a fishier vibe. Kathy and Hillary are now bringing in real work on climate change, and Karen is continuing the tradition of irreverent copepodology.  Science is a tough business, with lots of ups and downs.  Since we clearly don't do this for the money, I'm thankful to get to work with people who are fun and creative and who are passionate about this very weird and wonderful endeavor.

Making observations at sea

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I've been an EML'er for exactly a year now, starting with my meager beginnings as an intern last May. This past year has been a fast pace transition. After graduating from the University of Maine in May of 2013 with a bachelor's in marine science, I essentially began working towards a master's in oceanography a week later. From that point on, I quickly evolved into a climate modeler and statistics geek. Now that the academic year is over, I can reflect back on my experiences as a first year graduate student and look forward to what the future may hold.

One such experience occurred during a recent (May 1-12) research cruise aboard the R/V Knorr. This cruise sailed between Woods Hole and Bermuda following a direct, linear path called Line W. The Line W field program is a long-term climate observing system put in place by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) in 2003. It consists of a moored array of 6 buoys extending over the shelf break. The goal of the program is to gather hydrographic data to better understand the baseline conditions of the Deep Western Boundary Current and Gulf Stream.

Line W is named after the late physical oceanographer, Valentine Worthington, who devoted much of his life and career to understanding the circulation and water mass formation in the North Atlantic Ocean. Like most great things in science, the Line W program recently came to an end due to unobtainable funds. I was fortunate enough to have been a part of its legacy by participating on the final leg of the program.
Scannell1.JPG On this cruise, we took shipboard hydrography measurements at 26 stations along Line W. We lowered a CTD rosette to depths beyond 5,000 meters to measure temperature, salinity and oxygen. An upward and downward facing acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) was attached to the CTD to measure the water current velocity. From the CTD control station within the main lab aboard the Knorr, we fired Niskin bottles at different depths to collect 10-liters of water. A trip down to 5,000 meters can take over 3 hours, so a lot of time was spent waiting in the lab. The CTD and ADCP measurements allowed us to obtain vertical profiles of the Deep Western Boundary Current and Gulf Stream along the location where they intersect Line W. Changes in the global thermohaline circulation are expected to occur due to climate changes at high latitudes, and the past successes of the Line W program have given scientists the ability to document these changes through observational studies.

Yes, observations! During my experience on the Line W cruise, I couldn't help but fixate on the apparent divide between climate modeling and observational oceanography. Models enable us to force a condition, test our theories and make predictions, but perhaps every modeler should connect their virtual reality with hydrographic observations at sea. For me, this is exactly what Line W did.


As I look forward to the future, I am reassured as a modeler that the oceans continue to be explored, measured and observed through long-term field programs like Line W. 

On the Line W cruise, I not only gained a greater appreciation for the data I often take for granted, but I also gained a new admiration for the labor intensive field of observational oceanography.


Hillary Scannell, UMaine/GMRI

Photos provided by WHOI.

2014 Lobster Forecast--Update 6

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I think this will be my last update for awhile.  While the skill of our forecast continues to increase through May, the value of the forecast decreases as well.  I might check back on things at the end of the month, but we'll see.

Our final forecast has the start of the season exactly at the long-term average of 6/29:


There is a slightly greater chance that the start date will be earlier than 6/29, but it's pretty small. 

While I'm pretty excited about this forecast, there is one thing that I find unsatisfying.  Because we're defining the start date as the percent of the total landings for the year, we can't check the accuracy of the forecast until the year is complete.  I have some ideas for how we might work around this problem (defining the start as the rate of change in landings, for example).  Here are some other features we hope to add (assuming we can find some funding, of course):

    • move beyond landings to forecasts for hard/soft shell mix
    • forecasts for different lobster zones
    • improved lead time--we think we might be able to start issuing forecasts in November
Stay tuned!

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This page is an archive of entries from May 2014 listed from newest to oldest.

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